In this exclusive guest blog for KingsCast, Clayton Corley from OpiatedSherpa.com stops by and gives us his breakdown, and the Canadian perspective, of the Vancouver vs. Los Angeles series starting Thursday, April 15.
Thankfully, it’s just about that time again. Time for the playoffs to get started around the NHL and as fans (of teams that made the playoffs), we get to see how our team test’s their mettle against the other qualified teams that each provide their own challenge and reason for winning. I suppose I wouldn’t be doing a guest blog here, if I wasn’t going to do one for the Kings and Canucks series, the latter being my favourite team; plus, I think this is going to be one hell of a series to watch for both sides. I like to be fair when it comes to categorizing some teams, that way I know what to expect when I watch two teams go head-to-head and I really think this young & exuberant Kings team will be jumping on the learning curve with a lot of enthusiasm against the Canucks team that has been trying oh-so-hard to build their team on patience and puck-possession and try to seize a winning opportunity.
Since I had Anze Kopitar on my fantasy hockey team this season, I actually watched a good number of Kings games this season and enjoyed watching them in their number of stages this year. When Kopitar was burning up barns to Quick being lights out and then a more well-rounded approach when both their superstars became a little bit more human. There is a lot to like about this Kings team, especially their desire to want to play hard, skate fast and not quit, which will make them a tough team to play against. With players like Dustin Brown, Wayne Simmonds, Brad Richardson and Jack Johnson, the Kings have a great core of players that should be able to lift their “x-factor” into new levels when Game One starts and really have an influence on the game.
I’ve watched the Canucks all year and the key to their success, as much as I hate to say it, has been coaching and the system in place. If it wasn’t for the two rounds in the playoffs in 2009, there probably would have been a little less hope for this team that had a very hard time getting started this season. With injuries to some key players early on in the season, the Canucks managed to stick to their game plan and brought some new players to the forefront, while some of the old favourites took their game to the next level. In this early round, I’ll be looking towards Ryan Kesler, Alex Burrows and Kevin Bieksa to help build the team up when its slipping a little bit and earn their way out of some tough spots. That’s what the playoffs are really about in the end.
Thanks to the Kings website, I managed to look at some of the statistical comparisons between the two teams and it’s fairly safe to say that they do tilt in one direction a fair bit, north. In a lot of cases, the tilt isn’t that big or terribly significant, but in more cases than not, the Canucks do hold a slight advantage in categories. When we start the playoffs, there is plenty of excitement to get going that a lot of teams, especially the young ones that haven’t been to the dance before, get a little overexcited and try to do too much when it gets going and that leads to penalties and the special teams. I’m expecting a pretty physical series between Los Angeles and Vancouver, so the blood is likely going to boil over quite quickly and we’ll probably see more than our fair share of rough stuff from either side, but it will be the team that stays out of the box and/or the team that has the better special teams that will move on to round two. Both the power play and the penalty kill for both teams are exceptionally close, according to their regular season numbers and both have combined percentages over 100%, which is a good index for comparison for NHL teams. It will definitely be interesting to see what lessons learned during the regular season get applied to the meaningful games of the playoffs.
The Canucks hold an edge in the regular season series, going 3-1-0 against the Kings, but Los Angeles did avoid the season sweep in the last game of the season, thanks in large part to a big offensive push and a good outing from Jonathan Bernier on April 1st. I try not to hold too much stock in the season series, because there are a lot of mitigating factors when it comes to what it really means, but it also doesn’t hurt to use against your opponents in trash-talking or clever word play.
Like any good playoff series, goaltending will be front and centre and this series will feature a couple of goaltenders who have had their seasons questioned a little bit from some inconsistencies in their recent games. Both Jonathan Quick and Roberto Luongo are workhorses when it comes to their respective team’s nets, so it should come to no surprise to anyone when fatigue levels start to sink in a little bit. Quick was an absolute warrior in the NHL this season, ranking 2nd in minutes played by a goaltender and picking up 39 wins. Luongo did have a spell where he was injured, so his minutes played numbers are down to Quick’s, but an Olympic appearance and a 40-win season was still manageable for the Canucks keeper, which is likely considered to be a pretty big plus. Like I said earlier, it has been a shaky go of it leading up to the playoffs, as Quick has gone 0-1-3 in his last five appearances for the Kings, including two fantastic appearances in overtime against the Coyotes and Ducks, just falling short in extra time. Luongo, in his last five appearances, did go 3-1-1, but had some shaky performances, including the last game to the Kings, where he was in for all eight of the Kings goals in the 8-3 loss.
Looking at the stats again, the last bit of comparison that I think should be done should look at the experience levels of both teams. The Kings have a 11 players that have played in the playoffs before, while the Canucks have 23, thanks to keeping a good core from last year’s appearance. The Canucks do have a pretty big edge when it comes to playoff experience, but I don’t want to count out the Kings, because there are certain levels of leadership that the Canucks do not have that the Kings are spoiled with from Ryan Smyth, Sean O’Donnell and Rob Scuderi. Now, whether or not those three players can reel in some of the youth on the Kings team is another question that can only be answered on the ice, but you have to know that the Kings dressing room will have a fair bit of confidence oozing from the pores. If anything, Dustin Brown will get a very thorough learning experience on how to become a great NHL captain, thanks to these rugged, playoff-tested veterans.
I think all things considered, it’s pretty lopsided towards the Canucks to start this playoff run, but for Kings fans that saw an excellent regular season, there should be a lot of good taken from this playoff experience for a lot of the young leaders on the Kings, because the team is being built to be a contender for the foreseeable future. It might not be an immediate championship, but much like the Canucks and their slow build towards being an elite team, it does take a lot of time when you’re not drafting players like Sidney Crosby or Alexander Ovechkin 1st overall. Then again, that Drew Doughty guy is already blossoming into a purebred superstar himself and he’ll be the cornerstone of this franchise for years to come.
My official prediction is seeing the Canucks go through in five games, with the Kings taking one in front of their home fans. It’ll be a high-tempo, hard-hitting series, but experience and system should prevail, much like it did against the St. Louis Blues last Spring.
Visit Clayton Corley at his website www.opiatedsherpa.com.
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